|
A meaningful shift, even though Neil made the point that Republicans
were basically down with everybody?
Hart: Yes. Because if you look at attitudes among Hispanics toward
the Republican Party, they dipped way down. Previously Hispanics
were much more open to the Republicans on the basis of values and
family and entrepreneurship. The Republicans sent off a very negative
message, and it opens things up for the Democrats.
Newhouse: That's still an open question. There's no question that
the immigration debate hurt. This presidential election could push
it one way or the other significantly. I'm not ready to say that
the losses we incurred this year are going to be sustained through
'08.
Hart: Can I go back on another point: What's happening in the area
of governance? In 2006 the Republicans lost moderates throughout
the Northeast. In 1994 the Democrats lost moderates throughout the
South. And essentially it pushes the parties to being controlled
by the extremes. The question is can we find a middle that is going
to be able to govern? Without that, I think that we end up in not
only gridlock, but also with an inability to deal with central issues
that are facing us now.
Newhouse: The Republican center in Congress has moved somewhat to
the right. The center of the Democratic Party in Congress has also
moved to the right. The Democratic chairmen are still over there
on the left, but the new members are more conservative.
Hart: You go from [outgoing Republican House Energy Committee chair
Joe] Barton at an 86 percent conservative voting record to [incoming
Democratic chair John] Dingell at 75 percent liberal. From [Republican
Judiciary Committee chair James] Sensenbrenner at 62 percent conservative
to [Democratic chair John] Conyers at 91 percent liberal. Those are
huge shifts. Newhouse: I had the distinct pleasure this year of working for the only
Democrat I've ever worked for in this profession, and it's Joe
Lieberman. I got drafted to do that campaign after he lost the primary,
then ran as an Independent. His messages of "people not politics" and "running
from the middle" were very resonant. There's a real sense that
we are too polarized in D.C.
On cross-party appeal
You now also have John McCain, a potential Republican nominee who
appeals across party lines. Is it possible that we're seeing the
beginnings of the system busting out of that polarization?
Newhouse: Voters would put up with polarization if we were getting
results with it. They want something done on some of these key issues.
When you asked [2006] voters, either in focus groups or polls, what
they most admire about Congress, they couldn't come up with a single
thing.
Do you expect, looking forward to 2008, 2012, that we will have
a more scrambled picture, and presidential nominees will get 15,
20, 30 percent of the other side's vote?
Hart: I'll tell you how we're going to get scrambled: We're going
to have an important third-party candidate, an Independent candidate,
in 2008. And I would venture to say that individual will get more
than 10 percent of the popular vote.
Are you talking about [New York City Mayor] Mike Bloomberg?
Hart: I can give you six different names. Voters want something different—the
ability to be able to talk from beyond the party line.
Newhouse: It depends on who the major-party nominees are.
Hart: If you end up with two Washington insiders running, there will
be a market [for an Independent candidate]. If you tell me that it's
[outgoing Massachusetts Governor] Mitt Romney and [Illinois Senator]
Barack Obama, I would say there is a much smaller possibility.
On what Americans ache for in '08
One of the central elements in the calculus of presidential politics
lately has been the question of whether Democrats can compete in
the South. Is that the wrong question?
Hart: Elections come down to the Mississippi River—2,350 miles,
stretching from the northern part of Minnesota down to the Gulf of
Mexico. And those are ten states. Since 1912, whoever has won more
of those states has been the president of the United States. But
in the end I think what President Bush missed after 9/11, and what
America aches for in 2008, is somebody who's going to unify the country
and talk to a national purpose and give us a way of moving forward.
That person's going to be potent in the Northeast and in the South
and along the Mississippi. That doesn't come out of ideology. That
comes out of the soul.
Is it a calling card for a Republican
candidate to say, "I
can win a state or two that counts in the Northeast"?
Newhouse: I'm not sure that's the way to think about it. Mitt Romney's
not going to be able to carry Massachusetts. John Edwards wouldn't
have carried North Carolina.
Even on top of the ticket?
Newhouse: No.
• continues on page
three. |
